Rapid Intensification Guidance AL102024 240929 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 36.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.1 43.0 49.6 60.2 72.5 68.6 49.5 48.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -0.9 -1.3 -5.3 -8.0 -11.0 -14.4 -17.1 -19.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 46.0 31.0 15.0 -11.0 2.0 15.0 -17.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 56.0 60.0 50.0 41.0 U U U U U N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 -3.0 16.0 31.0 46.0 73.0 35.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.70 AL102024 240929 12UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 36.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.