Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL102024 240930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.60     30.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.2  70.2  73.2  77.4  56.0  55.7  53.8  59.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.3   4.0   4.0   2.1  -0.5  -2.7  -3.8  -4.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0 -13.0  15.0  19.0  41.0  12.0  18.0   3.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  51.0  37.0  39.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  23.0  31.0  38.0  35.0  31.0  38.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 17.80

 AL102024 240930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.60     30.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.