Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  32.3  37.0  35.1  29.9  30.2  30.6  30.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  53.0  53.0  48.0  31.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 105.5 107.4 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0 120.0  77.0  11.0 -17.0 -14.0  -7.0   4.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.3%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.9%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 AL112024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     42.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.