Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112024 240927 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 36.6 36.4 37.2 28.3 32.1 28.2 23.9 U U U U N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 53.0 49.0 41.0 23.0 21.0 20.0 16.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 100.5 102.4 104.4 106.5 108.6 110.7 110.7 110.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 128.0 96.0 36.0 -30.0 -9.0 -17.0 7.0 -17.0 F F N VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 53.0 47.0 47.0 44.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 2.1% 4.9% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 6.3% 3.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 1.5% 2.1% 1.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.42 AL112024 240927 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.