Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112024 240928 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 44.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.7 36.4 37.1 33.3 29.3 27.4 24.5 25.0 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 51.0 42.0 31.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 20.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.4 99.4 101.5 101.5 105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 26.0 -35.0 -32.0 6.0 -1.0 32.0 -2.0 N U VU VU U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 53.0 51.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 0.8% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.2% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 3.7% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 AL112024 240928 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 44.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.