Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  38.3  33.6  31.7  30.5  29.1  25.5  35.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  40.0  33.0  25.0  21.0  22.0  19.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  99.4 101.5 103.6 105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0 -13.0 -14.0 -16.0  -1.0  -8.0  42.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 AL112024 240928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  38.3  33.6  31.7  30.5  29.1  25.5  35.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%