Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  32.8  32.4  33.3  29.2  25.9  32.9  38.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  32.0  25.0  21.0  22.0  19.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4 101.5 101.5 103.6 105.7 105.7 105.7 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -39.0 -32.0 -23.0 -24.0  -5.0  18.0  -6.0   8.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 AL112024 240928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  32.8  32.4  33.3  29.2  25.9  32.9  38.6  F  F  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%