Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  34.8  36.2  32.5  30.4  27.0  37.0  26.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  26.0  21.0  22.0  21.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 108.6 108.6 110.7 110.7 110.7 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -28.0  -8.0   3.0 -15.0  51.0  -6.0   0.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL112024 240928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  34.8  36.2  32.5  30.4  27.0  37.0  26.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  50.0  47.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  F VF  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%