Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     47.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.7  30.8  30.1  29.3  32.5  33.8  33.1  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  21.0  19.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 108.6 108.6 110.7 110.7 110.7 110.7 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0 -20.0 -14.0 -22.0   0.0  15.0  30.0  23.0 VU VU  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  U VU VU  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 AL112024 240929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     47.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  35.7  30.8  30.1  29.3  32.5  33.8  33.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  F VF VF  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%