Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  33.0  31.6  32.0  31.6  31.7  30.0  36.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  21.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 108.6 110.7 110.7 110.7 108.6 108.6 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  10.0   0.0 -28.0  39.0 -20.0  36.0  41.0  U  U  U VU  N VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 AL112024 240929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     47.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  33.0  31.6  32.0  31.6  31.7  30.0  36.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  48.0  50.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  54.0 VF VF  F  F VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%