Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  31.5  33.2  30.9  31.8  27.3  35.9  35.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  17.0  17.0  15.0  16.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -30.0  -6.0  27.0  15.0  32.0  10.0  10.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  48.0  52.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 AL112024 240929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  31.5  33.2  30.9  31.8  27.3  35.9  35.9  F  N  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  48.0  52.0  52.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%