Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     49.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.9  28.4  31.2  27.6  31.3  37.1  37.1  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  26.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0   1.0  48.0  -3.0  45.0  12.0  52.0  52.0 VU  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.4%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL112024 240930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     49.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.9  28.4  31.2  27.6  31.3  37.1  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  49.0  51.0  51.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%