Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112024 240930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  28.8  30.6  31.5  27.9  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  17.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  43.0   2.0  -6.0   8.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  46.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.4%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL112024 240930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     49.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  28.8  30.6  31.5  27.9  39.0  39.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  46.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%