Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 240930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     32.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.9  19.1  18.9  18.5  19.4  18.8  23.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  26.0  34.0  23.0  20.0  29.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        114.4 114.4 112.4 114.4 114.4 112.4 110.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  58.0  59.0  73.0 122.0 138.0 139.0 132.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       10.1%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       20.2%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%        9.6%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%        8.3%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h       33.4%       20.3%       26.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 AL122024 240930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     32.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.9  19.1  18.9  18.5  19.4  18.8  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%