Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 240930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.4  15.2  13.3  15.8  17.1  22.0  18.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  27.0  35.0  33.0  25.0  23.0  35.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        118.6 112.4 114.4 114.4 114.4 112.4 108.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  63.0  55.0  57.0 106.0 150.0 165.0 128.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       13.1%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.6%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.6%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.6%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       27.0%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       14.6%       16.5%
 70kt / 48h       14.6%       12.5%       13.6%
 65kt / 72h       39.4%       26.8%       33.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 AL122024 240930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.4  15.2  13.3  15.8  17.1  22.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%