Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122024 240930 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 34.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 13.3 10.0 11.7 15.1 17.4 22.1 18.1 F F F F F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 34.0 34.0 31.0 23.0 25.0 42.0 55.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 113.6 113.6 109.4 109.4 111.5 105.5 103.5 105.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 52.0 49.0 131.0 150.0 160.0 108.0 89.0 N N N F VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 68.0 68.0 N F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 -6.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 3.7% 2.8% 25kt / 24h 11.9% 28.8% 20.4% 30kt / 24h 5.2% 15.6% 10.4% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 14.3% 8.2% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 14.2% 7.8% 45kt / 36h 13.1% 46.9% 30.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.3% 13.7% 55kt / 48h 32.9% 24.8% 28.8% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 26.1% 25.5% 65kt / 72h 46.0% 37.5% 41.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.62 AL122024 240930 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 34.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 13.3 10.0 11.7 15.1 17.4 22.1 18.1 N U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 68.0 68.0 N U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 -6.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%