Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 240930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     35.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  12.1  12.7  15.8  20.4  21.7  16.0  17.5  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  23.0  30.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         98.6  98.6  94.4  94.4  92.4  90.5  90.5  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  94.0 120.0 153.0 123.0 135.0  97.0  76.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.1%       15.1%       17.1%
 25kt / 24h       48.2%       55.5%       51.8%
 30kt / 24h       27.4%       42.4%       34.9%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       42.4%       31.0%
 40kt / 24h       19.5%       41.4%       30.4%
 45kt / 36h       32.5%       59.7%       46.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.5%       20.7%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       24.7%       29.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       27.6%       26.1%
 65kt / 72h       33.7%       31.7%       32.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL122024 240930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     35.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  12.1  12.7  15.8  20.4  21.7  16.0  17.5  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%