Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 241001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     36.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  16.4  15.6  17.3  17.2  20.1  14.9  19.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  30.0  21.0  18.0  29.0  53.0  53.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  96.5  92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0 117.0 137.0 113.0 145.0 103.0 122.0  64.0  N  F VF  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        4.0%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       21.7%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       11.2%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       11.0%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       11.0%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       23.8%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.7%        8.3%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h       19.7%        7.7%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       33.7%       14.5%       24.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.48

 AL122024 241001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     36.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.