Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 241001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.6  16.9  17.3  20.1  15.6  19.5  15.9  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  16.0  16.0  24.0  47.0  53.0  44.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  92.4  88.5  90.5  90.5  92.4  94.4  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 120.0  92.0 105.0 137.0 114.0  43.0  48.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0  -4.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       15.2%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        7.6%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.9%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       17.4%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h       19.5%        7.0%       13.3%
 70kt / 48h       16.3%        5.7%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h       26.3%       10.9%       18.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 AL122024 241001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.