Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 241001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  20.1  16.6  16.4  18.1  16.1  14.3  19.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  24.0  34.0  56.0  53.0  35.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.4  87.4  85.5  85.5  85.5  89.4  89.4  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0  95.0  92.0 130.0 117.0  67.0  58.0  73.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -4.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        3.8%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.1%       22.0%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       12.3%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       12.3%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       11.8%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       22.9%       17.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       21.0%        8.8%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h       17.3%        7.5%       12.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%       12.6%       18.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 AL122024 241001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     38.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.