Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 241002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  14.7  17.0  17.9  19.4  15.3  17.6  23.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  42.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  30.0  21.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.5  73.5  73.5  75.5  77.4  79.4  81.5  83.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  99.0 129.0 116.0  73.0  75.0  64.0  90.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        7.7%        9.9%
 25kt / 24h       27.6%       30.0%       28.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       21.6%       18.5%
 35kt / 24h       12.4%       21.6%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       20.1%       13.1%
 45kt / 36h       19.0%       24.0%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%        8.8%       14.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.2%        6.9%       10.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 AL122024 241002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     40.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.