Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL122024 241002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.5  15.8  15.0  18.5  16.3  27.0  34.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  34.0  21.0  17.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.5  70.5  70.5  72.4  74.4  76.5  78.6  80.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0 107.0  65.0  75.0  70.0  51.0  67.0  98.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.4%       12.0%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       38.0%       36.1%
 30kt / 24h       21.4%       32.3%       26.8%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%       32.3%       25.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       29.6%       19.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.0%       27.6%       25.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       21.0%       11.0%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 AL122024 241002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.