Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122024 241002 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 42.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 16.1 16.2 17.3 17.9 23.6 29.8 41.7 F F F F F N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 54.0 51.0 48.0 28.0 22.0 15.0 38.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 65.5 65.5 67.4 69.4 69.4 71.5 73.6 73.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 83.0 91.0 78.0 91.0 34.0 67.0 80.0 F N F N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 65.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 66.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 11.0 36.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 39.9% 24.0% 32.0% 25kt / 24h 55.2% 53.6% 54.4% 30kt / 24h 41.9% 50.6% 46.3% 35kt / 24h 34.7% 50.6% 42.6% 40kt / 24h 27.9% 47.7% 37.8% 45kt / 36h 33.9% 38.2% 36.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.6% 11.3% 55kt / 48h 17.8% 13.2% 15.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 AL122024 241002 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 42.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.