Rapid Intensification Guidance AL122024 241002 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 57.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 21.0 22.0 20.2 19.6 27.7 35.3 43.8 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 50.0 37.0 29.0 22.0 15.0 34.0 39.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.4 64.4 64.4 64.4 66.5 68.6 70.7 64.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 83.0 96.0 70.0 39.0 61.0 86.0 121.0 N N F N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 63.0 62.0 65.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 24.0 55.0 N N N N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 34.4% 12.5% 23.5% 25kt / 24h 33.2% 28.8% 31.0% 30kt / 24h 24.0% 21.4% 22.7% 35kt / 24h 20.8% 21.4% 21.1% 40kt / 24h 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 45kt / 36h 28.9% 16.9% 22.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 7.9% 3.9% 5.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 AL122024 241002 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 43.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.