Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132024 241002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     29.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.2  25.6  22.9  21.7  21.3  18.9  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  12.0  16.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 125.1 125.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0  78.0  66.0  68.0  61.0  72.0  63.0  71.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       11.4%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       15.3%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        7.9%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       15.4%       11.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 AL132024 241002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     29.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  26.2  25.6  22.9  21.7  21.3  18.9  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%