Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172024 241102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.5  30.6  29.7  33.0  35.5  40.4  38.9  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.2  19.6  21.7  21.2  21.2  17.2  13.1   8.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  62.0 -19.0  13.0  15.0  13.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  47.0  45.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  12.0   2.0   7.0  11.0  16.0  22.0  23.0  N  U  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.42

 AL172024 241102 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.