Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172024 241102 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 31.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.4 36.4 33.6 31.9 35.0 39.2 40.3 37.5 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 12.8 11.7 11.2 11.7 10.7 4.2 1.6 -2.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 -8.0 10.0 6.0 16.0 6.0 6.0 2.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 50.0 50.0 49.0 46.0 47.0 45.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 3.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 21.0 16.0 7.0 U N N N U VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.60 AL172024 241102 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 31.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.