Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172024 241103 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 26.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 34.5 37.8 38.0 44.9 45.3 38.8 38.8 U U U U VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 20.7 21.2 20.7 17.7 14.2 9.6 7.1 7.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 13.0 34.0 40.0 -4.0 -20.0 -38.0 -38.0 U U N N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 6.0 8.0 13.0 23.0 28.0 12.0 12.0 N N U U VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.20 AL172024 241103 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 26.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.