Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172024 241103 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 25.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 39.3 39.0 41.9 49.0 43.8 43.9 43.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.2 30.7 30.1 26.3 24.7 17.9 17.1 17.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 30.0 33.0 10.0 -10.0 -38.0 -36.0 -36.0 U N N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 45.0 48.0 47.0 46.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 VU VU U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 25.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.22 AL172024 241103 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 25.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.