Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172024 241103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20     23.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  38.5  41.1  42.6  45.6  39.2  39.2  39.2  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.2  25.7  22.2  19.2  16.3  12.9  12.9  12.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  25.0   7.0  -1.0   0.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  12.0  18.0  16.0  19.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  U VU  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.02

 AL172024 241103 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20     23.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.