Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172024 241104 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 21.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 39.0 41.9 46.3 42.0 43.7 43.7 43.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.6 21.3 19.2 19.2 14.0 12.6 12.6 12.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 -25.0 -60.0 -60.0 -60.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 40.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 15.0 17.0 25.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.62 AL172024 241104 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 21.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.