Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172024 241104 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.90 19.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.0 43.3 48.0 47.6 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.3 24.2 24.2 21.3 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 19.0 26.0 21.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 U VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.18 AL172024 241104 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.90 19.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.