Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172024 241104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20     17.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  47.4  46.5  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.9  24.2  21.3  20.3  20.3  20.3  20.3  20.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  16.0  -4.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  21.0  16.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 18.82

 AL172024 241104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20     17.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.