Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  13.8  11.6  12.0   9.2  17.4  22.3  26.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0 106.0 137.0 112.0  93.0 105.0 107.0 148.0  N  F VF  F  F  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 120.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  39.0  70.0  69.0  86.0  72.0  65.0  83.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.2%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       29.8%       49.9%       39.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.9%       27.7%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.6%       25.7%       17.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       25.7%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       41.2%       69.3%       55.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.2%       23.1%
 55kt / 48h       62.4%       61.0%       61.7%
 70kt / 48h       62.4%       55.9%       59.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       77.8%       69.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL182024 241104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  13.8  11.6  12.0   9.2  17.4  22.3  26.7  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%