Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  13.7  12.3   9.4  12.2  18.5  20.4  32.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0 120.0 115.0  94.0 118.0  95.0 107.0 152.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  67.0  72.0  69.0  74.0  81.0  44.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  61.0  55.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   6.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        4.2%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       46.1%       34.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       25.9%       18.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       23.1%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       23.1%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       35.2%       63.9%       49.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.0%       19.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.6%       55.3%       53.5%
 70kt / 48h       38.3%       45.3%       41.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       68.9%       65.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL182024 241104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  13.7  12.3   9.4  12.2  18.5  20.4  32.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  61.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0   6.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%