Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  13.7  11.1   8.6  13.4  15.2  18.7  21.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 118.0  96.0  94.0 153.0 103.0  86.0 123.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  88.0  76.0  87.0  76.0  55.0  59.0  14.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.9%       42.5%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       21.7%       16.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       19.5%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       19.5%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       40.1%       61.0%       50.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.0%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h       68.6%       54.7%       61.6%
 70kt / 48h       68.6%       44.1%       56.3%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       70.0%       65.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL182024 241104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     76.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  13.7  11.1   8.6  13.4  15.2  18.7  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%