Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     76.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2   9.8  10.6  10.8  15.1  15.6  23.2  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 115.0  96.0  95.0 142.0 114.0  91.0 131.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 115.1 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  79.0  82.0 101.0  79.0  86.0  54.0  30.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.8%       22.6%       19.2%
 25kt / 24h       64.4%       79.1%       71.7%
 30kt / 24h       47.5%       66.7%       57.1%
 35kt / 24h       31.0%       66.7%       48.8%
 40kt / 24h       31.0%       66.7%       48.8%
 45kt / 36h       71.0%       86.3%       78.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       75.9%       37.9%
 55kt / 48h       91.6%       77.7%       84.6%
 70kt / 48h       91.6%       74.2%       82.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       80.3%       71.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL182024 241104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     76.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.2   9.8  10.6  10.8  15.1  15.6  23.2  19.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%