Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241105 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 76.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.6 9.9 9.6 11.9 15.6 16.9 23.2 26.2 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 97.0 95.0 118.0 100.0 113.0 83.0 141.0 F F F F F F N VF Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 104.4 98.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 75.0 88.0 90.0 74.0 105.0 23.0 -6.0 N N F F N F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 76.0 76.0 68.0 62.0 56.0 51.0 F F F F N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.2% 28.5% 23.4% 25kt / 24h 72.1% 84.3% 78.2% 30kt / 24h 55.5% 75.6% 65.5% 35kt / 24h 33.0% 75.6% 54.3% 40kt / 24h 28.1% 75.3% 51.7% 45kt / 36h 73.8% 89.4% 81.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 82.3% 41.1% 55kt / 48h 94.1% 81.7% 87.9% 70kt / 48h 94.1% 79.3% 86.7% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 78.5% 70.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 AL182024 241105 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 76.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.6 9.9 9.6 11.9 15.6 16.9 23.2 26.2 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 76.0 76.0 68.0 62.0 56.0 51.0 U U U U N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%