Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   9.4  10.6  14.9  18.7  22.4  20.5  32.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  95.0 130.0 141.0 117.0  72.0  96.0 135.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  F VF
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 107.9  99.4  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  70.0  80.0  95.0  53.0  40.0 -12.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0   8.0   7.0  -2.0   6.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       19.1%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       59.7%       74.6%       67.1%
 30kt / 24h       43.3%       61.4%       52.3%
 35kt / 24h       23.4%       60.9%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.4%       60.9%       42.1%
 45kt / 36h       57.4%       73.6%       65.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.6%       27.3%
 55kt / 48h       51.8%       55.6%       53.7%
 70kt / 48h       46.4%       41.7%       44.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       46.1%       54.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL182024 241105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   9.4  10.6  14.9  18.7  22.4  20.5  32.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0   8.0   7.0  -2.0   6.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%