Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     78.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  10.7  14.8  15.5  17.2  21.9  22.8  31.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0 117.0 153.0 106.0 112.0  73.0 137.0  86.0  F  F VF  F  F  N VF  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 105.7  99.4  93.5  86.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  77.0  82.0  83.0  60.0  20.0  33.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0  -1.0   4.0   5.0  -2.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       19.2%       15.8%
 25kt / 24h       59.8%       73.7%       66.8%
 30kt / 24h       41.4%       60.7%       51.0%
 35kt / 24h       20.4%       60.0%       40.2%
 40kt / 24h       19.2%       59.9%       39.5%
 45kt / 36h       52.5%       72.7%       62.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.3%       27.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       47.3%       49.3%
 70kt / 48h       28.7%       35.5%       32.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       41.0%       51.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL182024 241105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     78.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  10.7  14.8  15.5  17.2  21.9  22.8  31.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0  -1.0   4.0   5.0  -2.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%