Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241105 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 79.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 16.3 15.0 17.5 21.5 17.6 28.5 30.1 F F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 130.0 152.0 106.0 123.0 66.0 96.0 132.0 41.0 VF VF F F N F VF N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 87.4 89.4 85.5 85.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 85.0 71.0 60.0 2.0 25.0 7.0 54.0 F F N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 73.0 67.0 65.0 60.0 54.0 48.0 45.0 F N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 7.0 -1.0 -2.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 40.4% 33.4% 36.9% 25kt / 24h 72.5% 77.5% 75.0% 30kt / 24h 66.4% 67.9% 67.2% 35kt / 24h 43.3% 67.9% 55.6% 40kt / 24h 43.3% 67.9% 55.6% 45kt / 36h 57.5% 63.4% 60.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 43.2% 21.6% 55kt / 48h 50.9% 35.6% 43.3% 70kt / 48h 29.9% 25.3% 27.6% 65kt / 72h 61.8% 24.2% 43.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.68 AL182024 241105 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 79.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.5 16.3 15.0 17.5 21.5 17.6 28.5 30.1 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 73.0 67.0 65.0 60.0 54.0 48.0 45.0 U N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 7.0 -1.0 -2.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%