Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.0  17.0  20.0  24.7  20.1  28.5  29.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  145.0 102.0 120.0 102.0  83.0 151.0  67.0  45.0 VF  F  F  F  N VF  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  94.6  87.9  79.4  73.5  73.5  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  55.0  57.0  67.0  23.0  23.0  -4.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       74.4%       62.6%       68.5%
 25kt / 24h       87.4%       87.0%       87.2%
 30kt / 24h       87.3%       85.0%       86.2%
 35kt / 24h       75.3%       85.0%       80.1%
 40kt / 24h       74.0%       84.4%       79.2%
 45kt / 36h       65.8%       70.6%       68.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.0%       27.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       43.4%       47.3%
 70kt / 48h       35.1%       33.9%       34.5%
 65kt / 72h       50.5%       20.8%       35.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 AL182024 241106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     79.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.0  17.0  20.0  24.7  20.1  28.5  29.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%