Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.1  18.9  27.7  21.0  29.4  26.1  36.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0 108.0 109.0  93.0 157.0 130.0  30.0  69.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  U  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  84.6  84.6  75.7  69.4  71.5  59.8  59.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  95.0  88.0   5.0  35.0  11.0  30.0  29.0  N  F  F  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       89.4%       72.0%       80.7%
 25kt / 24h       94.7%       87.0%       90.8%
 30kt / 24h       94.7%       87.0%       90.8%
 35kt / 24h       94.7%       87.0%       90.8%
 40kt / 24h       94.7%       86.1%       90.4%
 45kt / 36h       76.1%       69.6%       72.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.1%       27.0%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       37.3%       44.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 AL182024 241106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     80.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.1  18.9  27.7  21.0  29.4  26.1  36.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%