Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     81.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.6  26.7  28.7  21.9  28.2  28.0  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 113.0  91.0 117.0 140.0  50.0  32.0  76.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  69.6  62.9  54.4  56.5  52.4  44.8  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  95.0  15.0  43.0  24.0  11.0  32.0  21.0  N  F  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       78.8%       47.3%       63.0%
 25kt / 24h       66.6%       57.8%       62.2%
 30kt / 24h       65.1%       50.6%       57.8%
 35kt / 24h       54.3%       50.6%       52.5%
 40kt / 24h       54.3%       48.8%       51.6%
 45kt / 36h       78.8%       45.3%       62.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 AL182024 241106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00     81.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.6  26.7  28.7  21.9  28.2  28.0  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%