Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  30.0  29.7  21.0  27.7  20.4  29.7  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0  98.0 132.0 158.0  79.0  30.0  65.0  64.0  F  F VF VF  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         59.6  52.9  50.7  44.4  42.4  36.6  36.6  36.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  -3.0  25.0  50.0 -16.0  26.0  26.0 -13.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  U  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.5%       22.6%       42.5%
 25kt / 24h       49.5%       34.0%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       44.1%       23.9%       34.0%
 35kt / 24h       34.3%       23.9%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.5%       22.5%       24.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL182024 241106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  30.0  29.7  21.0  27.7  20.4  29.7  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  F  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%