Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  29.2  19.6  22.4  27.4  25.8  30.1  34.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0 122.0 156.0 132.0  31.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  F VF VF  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.7  52.4  52.4  54.4  46.6  44.8  43.0  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  18.0  51.0  26.0  13.0  33.0  23.0  28.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        2.3%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%        7.1%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%        3.8%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        3.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        3.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%        2.3%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 AL182024 241107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  29.2  19.6  22.4  27.4  25.8  30.1  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  45.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  F  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%