Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241107 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 84.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 23.6 25.0 31.5 23.3 29.3 24.7 38.6 U N N U N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 134.0 156.0 126.0 45.0 41.0 67.0 61.0 57.0 VF VF F N N N N N Potential [kt] 52.4 52.4 54.4 52.4 44.8 43.0 44.8 44.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 33.0 40.0 16.0 6.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 U N N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 46.0 45.0 47.0 44.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -2.0 -6.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 AL182024 241107 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 84.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.