Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  25.3  30.3  29.2  30.2  29.0  38.3  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  156.0 138.0  60.0  30.0  61.0  66.0  55.0  54.0 VF VF  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         52.4  54.4  52.4  46.6  44.8  43.0  44.8  48.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  30.0  18.0  14.0  36.0   0.0  25.0  38.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.2%        3.8%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        4.6%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        2.5%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        2.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 AL182024 241107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     84.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.