Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182024 241107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  30.4  31.0  27.2  29.9  25.7  37.0  26.8  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  141.0  60.0  30.0  34.0  74.0  61.0  55.0  52.0 VF  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         54.4  52.4  46.6  46.6  43.0  44.8  48.5  48.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  21.0   0.0  19.0  42.0  22.0  21.0 -10.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        3.0%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%        3.5%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        1.9%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 AL182024 241107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60     85.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.