Rapid Intensification Guidance AL182024 241108 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 29.3 26.9 27.6 28.3 35.4 37.0 27.1 N N N N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 29.0 36.0 66.0 69.0 59.0 58.0 55.0 N U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 50.5 44.8 43.0 43.0 43.0 39.4 43.0 46.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 20.0 15.0 9.0 7.0 44.0 20.0 -10.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 50.0 50.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 42.0 34.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 -9.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.1% 1.5% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 AL182024 241108 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.